意大利是如何思考中国船舶工业的？

铁哥无敌 · 发表于 2009-1-21 13:58:51

Will Asia Invade Italy's Shipbuilding Niche?

Comments by
Robert D. Somerville
Will Asia Invade Italy's Shipbuilding Niche?
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Thank you Ugo and good afternoon to you all.
It is always a pleasure to participate in the Mare Forums and it is a particular pleasure to revisit Italy and to meet again with so many old friends.
This afternoon we have been asked to address the issue of shipbuilding, in particular the question of how Italian shipbuilding can continue to compete in an increasingly crowded market.
As you have just heard from Mr Marchesini, Fincantieri is well aware of the challenge.
I want to spend the brief period available to me to talk about the state of shipbuilding in Asia.
I think this is valuable as I believe the rapid expansion of not just shipyard capacity but shipbuilding capability in Asia poses a very direct threat to the continuation of these industries in the traditional, and higher cost, shipbuilding centers such as Italy.
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0 p+ q$ M8 {& G8 {% P% F# x* lTen years ago I do not think any of us would or could have predicted the incredibly rapid growth of shipbuilding in China.
Since joining the World Trade Organization in 2001, Chinese yards have experienced a 31 percent average annual growth rate.
Impressive as that is it pales against the average 41 percent annual growth in each of the last 3 years.
The pace of expansion is accelerating fast.
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! Y4 ]" F6 B% b) F, M9 AAnd during that period Chinese shipbuilders have also expanded their technical capabilities immeasurably.
The first LNG carrier, widely considered to be one of the most sophisticated ship types, is nearing completion at Hudong.
The first Chinese built jackup drilling rigs are emerging from Dalian.
Chemical carriers are now routinely ordered from Chinese shipbuilders.
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The result is that China is rapidly gaining ground on the two Asian shipbuilding powerhouses of Japan and South Korea.
To further emphasize this point, there are now nearly 100 more vessels contracted to be built to ABS class in China than in Korea and nearly 200 more Chinese contracts than for ABS classed vessels from Japanese yards.
Both Korea and Japan still have more tonnage on order to ABS but the gap is narrowing rapidly.
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Here is further confirmation.
China’s deadweight share has almost doubled over the last five years and now represents almost 20 percent of all tonnage on order around the world.
China It should also be remembered that these figures only represent orders placed directly with Chinese shipbuilders.
This does not include the rapid expansion of block construction facilities in China by the major Korean shipbuilders.
The Korean-built ship of today may already include a significant proportion of China fabricated steelwork.
When you look at the share by compensated gross tons, you can see that the growth has been less dramatic.
But it is hardly reassuring for the traditional shipbuilder and is evidence of the rapid adoption of technology and the emergence of new greenfield shipyards in China.
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You may find this slide of interest.
Despite the very active ordering of the last two years by Italian owners, including orders from Chinese shipyards, the Chinese yards have apparently not yet gained your full confidence.
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% q; A9 L) E  r5 v* g4 cThere is no other country in the world that can boast this type of shipbuilding expansion.
And this map shows just the major shipyards.
Clarksons currently tracks 250 shipyards in China that are capable of building ocean going merchant vessels.
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Forecasting where China’s shipbuilding industry will be in the future is difficult given its recent history.
The Chinese make very conservative public predictions and this chart reflects those statements.
My own personal view is that real performance will far outpace this projection and that China will be the dominant shipbuilding nation by 2012 or very soon after.
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I base that prediction on the speed with which they are developing new mega-yards that are comparable to the world’s best…. and on the equally rapid growth in the supply of Chinese materials and machinery.
The Chinese shipbuilding industry will become almost entirely self-sufficient within a very short period.
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I have been emphasizing the importance of China within the world shipbuilding equation but, if we are to look ahead, we must also take into account the accelerating pace of shipbuilding capability in Vietnam and India and the most recent diversification by Hanjin, the Korean builder, into the Philippines.
How does all this translate back to Italy?
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Italian shipbuilding has survived through the very careful development of a small number of highly specialized niche markets – most notably cruise ships and passenger ferries.
Other areas include chemical carriers, LPG carriers and luxury yachts.
What characterizes all of these is the greater sophistication of the designs and the higher level of fitting out that is needed rather than pure “metal bashing” as the organizers so aptly labeled this session.
I believe that these markets are either already under attack or very soon will be.
The chemical and LPG orders are already moving to China, Korea and Turkey.
The big Korean shipbuilders have made no secret of their response to the China threat – they are now focused on the high value, more sophisticated tonnage – LNG carriers, FPSOs, drill ships and passenger vessels.
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1 y5 c3 w0 r- o6 YThey have made it clear that they see passenger vessels – both cruise ships and passenger ferries - as a viable market segment.
If you recall, they have already built the most recent series of large ropaxes for Moby Lines.
There is absolutely no reason to believe that they do not have the skills necessary to successfully enter the cruise ship market.
What they do not yet have is the extensive network of suppliers of the specialist equipment and passenger space modules that will be needed if they are to challenge the dominance of Italy, France and Finland in this sector.
Ten years ago the Korean’s did not have the capability to produce the components of a membrane LNG containment system.
Today no one can do so more efficiently. So there you have it in a very quick summary.
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China is the emerging shipbuilding powerhouse.
Its orderbook share has more than doubled in the last five years and the continuing development of new yards will accelerate this trend.
With other yards emerging in Vietnam, India and the Philippines the pressure on the Japanese and Korean shipbuilders will become intense.
They will find it increasingly difficult to compete against these new Asian tigers for the simpler ship types and will also begin to lose orders for the next level of sophistication such as chemical carriers.
To survive – and neither Japan nor Korea is willing to sunset their shipbuilding industries in the foreseeable future – they will increasingly turn to higher value, more sophisticated ship types and offshore units.
As they do, there will be intense pressure on the surviving shipyards in the West to successfully retain their market niches and competitive advantages.
The battle is neither won, nor lost as yet but it has certainly begun.
I wish you well.
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ovo · 发表于 2009-2-13 13:42:26

不知所云。和国内的评论没看出有什么区别

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