How do I see the development in the Chinese Shipbuilding industry in the next 1 – 2 years, in the backdrop of financial crises all over the world?.
Now ripple effect also goes to China. Most Chinese people feel uncertainties and worries too. However, personally, I’m still optimistic about China economic growth. The major reason is that China’s past achievements are based on hardworking not speculation like USA and in a decade, China still has huge low cost human resource who is willing to work hard as always. This will make China a world economy drive engine and continue to grow.
In shipbuilding industry, the truth is that whole world building capacity is moving to China. Even Korea giant shipbuilders STX and Samsung set up big yards in China as well. It’s roughly estimate by Clarkson that completion output in China in 2008 would surpass 27 million dwt ( 20 million dwt in 2007 ). This upward trend will continue and lots of experts believe that shipbuilding output in 2009 will surpass 30 million dwt. Many Chinese shipbuilders have good order backlogs to the year 2012. If no much cancellations, these shipbuilders can tide over the crisis.
Recently I visited some private-owned shipyards which I ignored before. They gave me a big surprise and really impressed me. They are bigger and much modern than state-run Dalian, Guanzhou and Waigaoqiao shipyards we had visited. If no financial crisis, these private-owned shipyards will defeat the state-run shipyards for sure in terms of talent recruitment, operation flexibility and management efficiency. Facing global crisis, some Chinese yards mostly private-owned shipyards which are not strong enough may go under. I think this is inevitable and understandable, as there are too shipyards popping up recently which may result in an adjustment and reshuffling to a more healthy development.
Considering the world building capacity is moving to China and China has plenty of low cost human resource, which is the core competitiveness of shipbuilding industry, I have reasons being optimistic about the development in the Chinese Shipbuilding industry in the next 1 – 2 years and beyond it. |